Three Key Drivers Could Push Ukrainian Fuel Prices to 60 UAH per Liter by February 2026.

Fuel Price Forecast for Ukraine in 2026

According to TSN.ua: Ukrainian fuel prices could see a significant surge, potentially reaching 60 UAH per liter by February 2026. This sharp increase is expected to be driven by a combination of three primary factors: the devaluation of the hryvnia, new excise taxes, and rising global oil prices. Analysts warn that these conditions will lead to substantially higher costs for both gasoline and diesel.

New tax increases on fuel took effect in Ukraine starting January 1, 2026:

• Excise tax on gasoline rose by 10%
• Excise tax on diesel increased by 15%
• Excise tax on liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) went up by 13%

These tax hikes will directly impact the final price consumers pay at the pump. Furthermore, the price of Brent crude oil increased by 10% in January 2026, climbing from $60 to $66 per barrel, adding further pressure to the fuel market.

The exchange rate of the hryvnia against the U.S. dollar continues to be a major price determinant. For every additional hryvnia in the dollar exchange rate, about 80 kopiyoks are added to the cost of a liter of fuel. Combined, the rise in oil prices and the hryvnia's devaluation have already increased the procurement cost by over 2 UAH per liter.

Gennadiy Ryabtsev notes: 'The combined effect of oil prices and the exchange rate has already formed an increase in procurement cost of over 2 UAH/liter. In a couple of weeks, we will see an additional 2 hryvnias per liter guaranteed. This is an inevitable process.'

Average prices in February could exceed 60 UAH per liter for A-95 gasoline and diesel. As for autogas (LPG), its cost may approach 40 UAH per liter. The price of LPG has already risen by 12% and is currently fluctuating within the range of 37-38 UAH per liter. Given these trends, the fuel market situation remains tense, and consumers should prepare for likely price increases. Fuel costs are a significant component of household and business budgets in Ukraine, making these forecasts particularly impactful.

Economic Impact of Rising Fuel Prices

The projected rise in fuel prices during 2026 could have a substantial effect on Ukraine's economy, as it affects not only individual consumers but also businesses reliant on transporting goods. In an environment of rising energy costs, both enterprises and consumers may need to consider optimizing expenses and exploring alternative fuel sources.

The anticipated market changes could also influence social factors, particularly the level of inflation and the purchasing power of the population.