Business Forecast 2025: What Exchange Rate Do Ukrainian Companies Expect.

Ukrainian entrepreneurs express cautious optimism about the future development of their business until 2025. These conclusions were made by experts of the European Business Association (EBA) after conducting a study titled "Business Forecasts for 2025".

It turned out that the main indicator affecting business sentiment is the forecasted dollar to hryvnia exchange rate. According to the study, company executives are considering an exchange rate of 44 UAH/USD in their 2025 budgets, which is slightly higher than the previous year. However, this rate is consistent with the forecast for 2023.

On average, company executives are budgeting an exchange rate of 44 UAH/USD for 2025. This is somewhat higher than the expectations for 2024, when the forecast was 41 UAH/USD, but close to the forecast for 2023 (43 UAH/USD).

The survey also revealed that 53% of businesses predict positive dynamics for their business until 2025, although this figure has decreased compared to last year. 33% plan to maintain current performance, and 14% expect negative dynamics.

Although this figure has slightly decreased compared to last year's survey (58%), it still reflects prevailing optimism in the business environment. Meanwhile, 33% of respondents expect to maintain their performance at the previous year's level, and 14% anticipate negative dynamics, which is only slightly higher than last year's figure of 13%.

Regarding financial forecasts for 2025, the majority of executives (72%) expect revenue growth in national currency. Among them, 35% foresee growth up to 10%, 23% - from 11 to 20%, and 14% - more than 21%. Only 15% of entrepreneurs predict a decline in revenues in hryvnias.

However, the forecasts are less optimistic in dollar terms. 46% of respondents plan revenue growth, but in real terms. Regarding the dollar, 43% of entrepreneurs forecast growth, but 27% predict a decline.

It is worth noting that this study has been conducted for nine consecutive years and allows identifying long-term trends in the Ukrainian business environment. In the "Business Forecasts for 2025" survey, 92 executives of EBA member companies participated.