The Royal Gambit: The Munich Conference Released a Report on the Threats from Russia.

The authors of the Munich Security Conference (MSC) report 'Multipolarization' claim that attempts to stop the war in Ukraine may provide Russia with opportunities to achieve its goals.

'The new administration in the USA, which is a partner of Ukraine, wishes for a swift end to the Russian war against Ukraine through negotiations. If Ukrainian partners want to end the war at any cost, Russia may strike a favorable ceasefire deal,' warn the authors.

One potential benefit for Russia is strengthening control over the occupied territories, hindering Ukraine's accession to NATO, and providing reliable security guarantees, as stated in the document. This will allow Russia to bolster its army and try to draw all of Ukraine into its sphere of influence.

However, the plans of the new US administration regarding the cessation of the war remain unclear, and if the US adopts a firm stance towards Russia, 'the future of the latter may look troubled,' the authors warn. Russia's geopolitical position is beginning to crack, raising doubts about its sustainability. Russian sources estimate that 120 thousand Russian soldiers have died in Ukraine, and to compensate for these losses, the Russian authorities are forced to provide significant payments to recruits. Russia has also faced problems replacing lost equipment and declining revenues from energy exports.

Despite this, Russia continues to pose a significant challenge to its stronger adversaries. It threatens Europe through disinformation campaigns, election interference, diversions, assassination attempts, and nuclear weapons demonstrations, the authors of the report warn.