The War in Ukraine Will Not End in 2026: Main Reasons from Analysts.

According to ТСН: Analysts believe that the war in Ukraine is unlikely to end in 2026, as Russia is not prepared to make significant concessions.

Russian troops continue their offensive operations, while Ukraine controls significant territories in the Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson regions.

“Of course, I want this to end sooner, but… it seems to me that it will last for some time,” said Ukrainian soldier Petro.

“There will be no ceasefire... Everything indicates that the war will continue,” adds his colleague Oleksandr.

Despite numerous and bloody battles, Russia has not been able to completely seize Donetsk, which it considers one of its key targets. According to analysts, the largest conflict in Europe since World War II is unlikely to end in 2026.

“Neither side is currently able to achieve a decisive victory on the battlefield. Ukraine and Russia are under significant pressure, but neither seems to collapse,” notes Ruth Deermond, a senior lecturer in military studies at King’s College London.

The full-scale invasion of Ukraine by Russia began on February 24, 2022. Initially, the Kremlin anticipated a quick conquest, but after nearly four years, Russian troops control less territory than at the start. Troops advance slowly and often suffer losses, while Ukraine retains significant portions of Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson regions.

According to Western intelligence estimates, over 1.5 million people on both sides have been killed or injured as a result of the war. Continuous Russian airstrikes on Ukraine have led to numerous civilian casualties and destruction of energy infrastructure.

The biggest obstacle to peace in 2026 remains Russia.

“It seems disinterested in halting hostilities,” emphasizes Deermond.

Despite efforts towards diplomacy from Ukraine, the USA, and Europe, the prospect of a peaceful resolution appears uncertain.

“Russia’s goal is unpleasant for any other side, and its intransigence stems from a belief in its own victory,” notes Mark Cancian of the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.

Press Secretary Dmitry Peskov confirmed Moscow's intentions to 'strengthen its negotiating position', which occurred after accusations from Ukraine about a drone attack on one of Putin’s residences, which Kyiv denies.

Putin’s speeches on New Year and Christmas indicate that Russia is more focused on victory than on peace. He has repeatedly emphasized the 'sacred mission' of his soldiers and has not mentioned peace initiatives.

“Putin still claims 'Donbas and Novorossiya' and continues operations in four Ukrainian regions,” notes Dara Massico, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

Analysts point out that both sides aim to end the war on favorable terms for themselves.

“The continuation of the war may improve the negotiating positions of the parties in 2026,” adds Oleg Ignatov of the Crisis Group.

At the same time, both countries are facing issues such as a lack of workforce, arms supply, and economic constraints.

“When the war will end is still unknown. However, pressure on the Russian army in 2026 will be stronger than ever in the last four years,” predicts Andras Tot-Chifra, an expert at the American Institute of Foreign Policy.

Experts believe that Ukraine will likely continue fighting until resources are exhausted, and Russia collapses, considering economic losses and human casualties.

Recall that Reserve Major of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Oleksiy Hetman stated that Vladimir Putin set a deadline for the occupiers until February, expecting the capture of strategic cities in Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia.

Ukrainian context of this news continues to remain complex and unpredictable. It is clear that both sides are not ready for compromises, and the conflict has significant implications not only for Ukraine but also for security in Europe as a whole. The situation requires constant attention from the international community, which strives to find ways to a peaceful resolution.