When is a ceasefire possible in Ukraine: Bundestag deputy names two scenarios.

After Donald Trump was elected president of the United States, discussions about peace talks between Ukraine and Russia began around the world. However, some participants in these discussions believe that 'we must be realistic'. This is reported by the German deputy Michael Roth.

<blockquote>Even if the West and Ukraine are tired of the war, a ceasefire with Russia is still a long way off. Russian President Vladimir Putin shows no serious willingness to negotiate, and key issues regarding how to ensure such a ceasefire and stabilize it in the long term remain unresolved,' noted the article's author.

According to Roth, if Ukraine does not receive viable security guarantees, there is a great risk that the Kremlin will break the truce, prepare its troops for a new strike, and shift the appropriate moment in its favor.

The main goal of Russia in the attack on Ukraine

Roth believes that many Western politicians, including US President Joe Biden and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, believe that Ukraine's refusal to join NATO could satisfy Putin and be key to a peaceful settlement.

'However, in reality, Putin has never been interested in NATO. His goal is to conquer Ukraine and destroy the Ukrainian nationality through occupation or establishing a loyal regime in Kyiv,' he explained.

Russia has enough resources to continue the war longer than Ukraine. Therefore, the Russian army will continue to push in Ukraine until Putin achieves the desired outcome.

Two scenarios of events in Ukraine

Roth believes that the world should prepare for two possible scenarios for the development of events in Ukraine. The first scenario assumes that Putin does not come to the negotiating table or negotiations break down; then the US is likely to increase military support for Ukraine.

But in the US, particularly in the Trump administration, there is already almost no weapons and resources, and it is difficult to predict how much they will be able to increase their support.

The second scenario assumes that Putin will apply hybrid warfare, continue active hostilities, and simultaneously drag out negotiations. The duration of such actions without US support is unknown. In any case, Germany and Europe will have to make significant efforts to help Ukraine.

Roth noted that Trump's election changed everything but also opened new opportunities for Ukraine. Europe is now extremely important: only together with them can Ukraine defend itself against Russian imperialism. Efforts must be made to stop Russia and protect Ukraine as a democratic country.

Former Foreign Minister Pavlo Klimkin believes that the war could be concluded by 2025, but it is more likely that a freezing of the conflict or a decrease in its intensity will be achieved.

The Chinese delegation at the UN has called for accelerating negotiations between Russia and Ukraine, stating that both sides hope to achieve victory.

Earlier, French President Emmanuel Macron stated that Putin is not interested in peace and is not ready to negotiate to achieve it; instead, he is intensifying hostilities.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated that it is beneficial for Putin to come to the negotiating table, but he is not interested in reaching concrete agreements.