March 2026: Stabilizing and Destabilizing Forces for the Ukrainian Hryvnia.

Managed Volatility Forecast for Ukraine's Currency Market in March 2026

According to TSN.ua: Ukraine's currency market is projected to experience managed volatility in March 2026. This period will be shaped by a mix of both supportive and challenging factors for the hryvnia's exchange rate. Notably, March marks the peak season for purchasing fuel, fertilizer, and seeds, a cyclical demand that could place downward pressure on the national currency.

Key negative factors likely to influence the hryvnia's value include:

• the increase in fuel excise duties implemented in February;
• prevailing inflationary expectations, which traditionally impact currency markets.

Conversely, March is typically the month when scheduled tranches of international financial aid from the European Union and the International Monetary Fund arrive. These inflows are expected to serve as a stabilizing force for the hryvnia. The National Bank of Ukraine continues to adhere to its policy of 'managed flexibility,' which may also positively influence the foreign exchange market. A further supportive factor is the anticipated acceleration of exports from the previous year's remaining crop harvest.

The context for March 2026 points to a complex situation for Ukraine's currency market, where risks and opportunities coexist. While increased excise duties and inflation expectations could create additional pressure on the hryvnia, the arrival of foreign aid and heightened agricultural exports may provide positive counterweights. This underscores the importance of monitoring both the economic landscape and the National Bank's policy for forecasting future shifts in the currency market.