Black Sea Crisis: Global Wheat Stocks Threatened by Shortage.

According to experts, wheat production in the Black Sea region is problematic, which could lead to shortages in the coming season despite rising forecasts for global stocks. Major wheat exporters - Russia and Ukraine - are facing adverse conditions that may result in a significant decrease in production. Forecasts indicate that wheat harvest in Ukraine will be only 17.9 million tons, which is 23% less than the previous year. The reasons for this are dry soils at planting time and low production profitability. Yield figures in Russia are also not high. This could greatly harm global food security, as the expected wheat export from Ukraine next year will be significantly lower than historical highs. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine is also negatively affecting wheat exports from the Black Sea region. Its resolution at this stage will hardly impact wheat production in the next season, as most of the harvest is already sown.

Forecasts from the U.S. Department of Agriculture show that the stock-to-use ratio of wheat among major exporting countries will be below the medium-term average of the last decade.