The expert explained who will be most affected by the electricity shortage in winter.

Ukrainian energy workers intend to prepare 14-15 GW of generating capacities by early December 2024, considering restored generation. It is expected that this will not be able to fully cover the deficit of about 4 GW, which cannot be compensated through import.

This was reported by Sviatoslav Pavliuk, Executive Director of the Association of Energy Efficient Cities of Ukraine (EECU), during the discussion "Keeping the Light: The Battle for Ukraine's Power Grid," organized by the Wilson Center.

"This (generation deficit - ed.) generally accounts for up to 20% of production. This is actually an optimistic perspective. I would say it is an optimistic perspective," he said.

According to Pavliuk, the Ukrainian energy system had 18 GW of available capacity in 2023, but after a series of enemy attacks on the energy infrastructure, the working capacity was reduced to 10 GW by July 2024.

Currently, the expert noted, the main generating capacity in the Ukrainian energy system is three nuclear power plants with a total installed capacity of up to 8 GW. However, some power units cannot operate at full load due to equipment failures. Also, about 50% of hydroelectric power plants' capacities, which had a total installed capacity of up to 6 GW before the war, are damaged. In addition, the available capacity of thermal power plants and cogeneration was 5.5 GW as of August.

In the field of renewable energy sources, Ukraine has lost 80% of wind power plant capacities and 20% of solar power plant capacities in the occupied territories.

According to Pavliuk's forecasts, in winter, the main burden of power outages will fall on the population, as it is impossible to disconnect the defense sector, centralized heating and water supply enterprises, and critical social infrastructure facilities.

Source: Interfax-Ukraine