Reverse Race: Why Harris Has Chances Despite Unfavorable Indicators.

A month before the presidential election in the US, Vice President Kamala Harris found herself in a difficult situation. Despite the fact that her opponent, former President Donald Trump, should easily win the election considering the low satisfaction of Americans with the country's direction, polls show that the candidates are neck and neck.

CNN analyst Harry Enten notes that only 28% of Americans believe the country is moving in the right direction. This is significantly lower than it was at the start of Joe Biden's presidency in 2021, when this figure exceeded 40%. Historically, such a low number would be a bad sign for the party of the incumbent president. Since 1980, no ruling party has won an election when less than 39% of the population was satisfied with the direction of the country.

Moreover, President Joe Biden's disapproval rating is 10 points higher than his approval rating, which is also a negative factor for Harris. Enten emphasizes that the incumbent president's party has never won when the disapproval rating was higher than the approval rating.

Gallup, a well-known research firm, analyzes 10 different indicators before the election, including party identification, economic satisfaction, and presidential approval. Of these 10 indicators, 8 were favorable to Trump, 2 were neutral, and none indicated a victory for Harris.

However, Enten points to two key factors that may help Harris overcome these unfavorable trends:

• The negative rating of Donald Trump among voters. If Trump wins, he would become the least popular candidate ever to win the presidency, except for his own victory in 2016.
• Abortion issues, which remain important for many Americans after the overturning of the Roe v. Wade decision. Several states have measures on the ballot this fall to expand access to abortions.

These factors already helped Democrats achieve unexpectedly good results in the 2022 midterm elections, despite unfavorable polls. Then, Democrats managed to keep losses in the House of Representatives to single digits, expand the Senate majority, and win several gubernatorial seats.

The Election Could Change History

The analyst concludes that this election may break the historical trends observed over the past 44 years of presidential elections. This contradiction between historical data and the recent experience of 2022 makes this election particularly interesting to watch.