Forecast for March 2026: Where the Dollar and Euro Will Trade Against the Hryvnia.

Currency Fluctuations in Ukraine

According to Novyny.live: This analysis examines the projected movements of the Ukrainian hryvnia against the US dollar and euro in February and March 2026, alongside the influence of global factors on the currency market. In February 2026, the official hryvnia-to-dollar rate fluctuated between 42.81 and 43.29 UAH/USD. This range is notably lower than the annual average rate of 45.70 UAH/USD set in the state budget. The National Bank of Ukraine currently holds $56 billion in foreign exchange reserves, a substantial war chest that enables it to manage and stabilize the hryvnia's official exchange rates through market interventions.

March 2026 Projections

For March 2026, the official hryvnia-to-dollar rate is forecast to move within a range of 42.80 to 43.50 UAH/USD. Financial experts emphasize that the hryvnia's stability on the forex market hinges on the central bank's capacity to intervene. Analyst Oleksii Plotnikov commented:

'Ukraine currently has $56 billion in foreign exchange reserves, allowing the National Bank to control and maintain the official exchange rates by entering the market with specific interventions.' - Oleksii Plotnikov

What can be expected for the dollar in March? As indicated, the projected official dollar rates for March are anticipated to fluctuate within the aforementioned range. Regarding the euro, in February 2026, the official rate ranged from a low of 50.76 UAH/EUR to a high of 51.25 UAH/EUR. For March 2026, the official euro rate in Ukraine is expected to be between 50.90 and 51.40 UAH/EUR.

What about the euro's trajectory in March? The forecasts suggest the euro will continue to show relative stability, with only minor upward fluctuations. This trend may be linked to broader currency market dynamics and shifts in Ukraine's domestic economic conditions.

What else should Ukrainians consider? Given the ongoing currency fluctuations, it is crucial to monitor economic news that could impact the country's financial stability. Oleksii Plotnikov notes that the 'projected official rates for the dollar and euro in March' indicate the currency market situation remains under control but requires careful observation.

Considering these currency movements, a key stabilizing factor is the National Bank of Ukraine's sufficient reserves to support the hryvnia, which can prevent sharp market swings. The situation is likely to remain stable provided international and domestic economic factors do not change significantly. Staying informed about economic news and political events will remain critically important for Ukrainians planning currency transactions or holding financial obligations in foreign currency.