The National Bank explained the sharp increase in the dollar: how much will have to be paid for currency after the weekend.

The official exchange rate in Ukraine has risen again. On Monday, August 5, the dollar rose by 9 kopecks, and the euro by 24 kopecks. The official rates set for Monday are: 1 US dollar - 41.22 hryvnias, 1 euro - 44.64 hryvnias. According to the inflation report of the National Bank, the hryvnia weakened against the dollar by 4.4% in the second quarter of 2024, due to increased demand for foreign currency. The National Bank plans to continue active participation in the currency market to compensate for the structural shortage of currency and to protect hryvnia savings from devaluation.

Production losses, infrastructure destruction, and energy system damage will complicate the recovery of exports. Logistics costs will limit the growth of export earnings, and the departure of Ukrainians abroad will lead to an outflow of currency. High demand for cash and the easing of currency restrictions will create additional demand in the foreign exchange market.

"Minimizing exchange rate multiplicity and better "synchronization" of currency market segments improve the NBU's ability to maintain manageability and enhance its self-balancing capacity... Gradual normalization of the economy's functioning will help reduce the structural currency deficit in the market, but its volumes will remain significant in the forecast horizon," noted the NBU.

Details on the dollar exchange rate forecast for August can be read here.