NBU assessed business expectations: staff reduction and product price increase due to tariffs.

The National Bank of Ukraine published the results of the monthly Business Activity Expectations Index (BAEI) study for October 2024.

According to the data, the index reached the level of 49.4, which is 0.7 points higher than the September figure and is approaching the neutral level.

The positive impact on business sentiment was driven by optimistic forecasts regarding international financing, a revival of consumer demand, a stable situation in the energy sector, and favorable weather conditions. However, experts note a number of restraining factors, including intensified shelling of port infrastructure and risks of attacks on energy facilities.

Analysis by economic sectors shows that trade continues to hold the position of the most optimistic sector with an indicator of 51.9, slightly decreased compared to September (52.1). Industry shows moderate results, with an index of 49.8, which is lower than the September figure of 50.3. The construction sector also sees a slight decline - to 49.6 from 50.1 in September. The services sector, although having improved its figures to 47.2 compared to September's 44.6, still maintains the most restrained estimates among all sectors.

Particular attention is drawn to the labor market situation, where all sectors predict staff reductions. At the same Time, there is different dynamics: while industry and construction expect an acceleration of reduction rates, trade and services predict a slowdown in this process.

Representatives of all industries are unanimous in forecasting further price increases for their products and services, associated with expectations of high growth rates of purchase prices.