OPEC changed its long-term oil demand forecast.

OPEC has raised its forecasts for oil demand in the medium and long term. The main factors driving demand growth are the development of countries, particularly India, Africa, the Middle East, as well as the delayed transition to electric vehicles and cleaner fuels.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, in its 2024 World Oil Outlook report, predicts that oil demand will grow over a longer period than other forecasts from BP and the International Energy Agency, which expect peak oil consumption this decade.

"Future energy demand is growing in rapidly developing countries due to population growth, the middle class, and urbanization," OPEC Secretary General Haitham Al Ghais said during the report presentation in Brazil.

OPEC forecasts that by 2045, global oil demand will reach 118.9 million barrels per day, which is 2.9 million barrels per day more than expected. In its report through 2050, OPEC predicts that demand will reach 120.1 million barrels per day.

OPEC has also raised its medium-term demand forecasts as economic conditions strengthen and central banks lower interest rates.

OPEC's forecast for 2028 predicts consumption of 111 million barrels per day, and for 2029, 112.3 million barrels per day. This is higher than the International Energy Agency's forecast, which expects demand in 2029 to be 105.6 million barrels per day.

OPEC updated its forecasts after the 2020 pandemic significantly impacted oil demand. It began lowering forecasts, but they were later raised as demand recovered.

According to OPEC forecasts, by 2050 there will be 2.9 billion cars on the road, 1.2 billion more than in 2023. Internal combustion engine vehicles will comprise more than 70% of the global fleet, despite the growth of electric vehicles.

"Electric vehicles will gain a larger market share, but there are still many obstacles, such as electrical grids, battery production, and access to minerals," the report says.

OPEC and its allies continue to cut production to support the market. The report also predicts that by 2050, OPEC+'s market share will rise to 52% as US production peaks by 2030.

Source: enkorr