The Kremlin has 6 months to win in Ukraine: what will happen to the war after that.

According to ТСН: The Kremlin finds itself in a difficult situation: the Russian leadership realizes that time is working against them. This prompts an increase in attacks on the front and shelling of Ukrainian cities in an attempt to break Kyiv's resistance before an economic collapse occurs within Russia.

This opinion was expressed by American studies professor Scott Lucas.

Critical window: 6–12 months

The expert notes that economic difficulties, such as a sharp decline in oil revenues and a budget deficit, pose a tough choice for Moscow.

“The Kremlin has between 6 and 12 months to try to break Ukraine. If they cannot do it in this time, they may have to retreat, and this opportunity may be lost,” emphasizes the professor.

The realization that “time is running out” is the reason for the current intensification of military actions by Russia.

The economy of war

The situation inside Russia is deteriorating in several areas:

• Oil revenues: profits from oil sales, the main source of budget replenishment, may drop by 50% by the end of the year.

• Inflation: the unofficial inflation rate in Russia has already reached 20–25%, negatively impacting the financial situation of citizens.

• Decline of industries: agricultural production has fallen to its lowest level since 2009.

The Russian government has already projected a significant increase in military spending in the budget by cutting social services, which will inevitably lead to a decline in the quality of life for Russians.

The only salvation for Putin

Lucas emphasizes that the Kremlin's only hope for saving the economy remains the lifting of sanctions.

The sanctions imposed by the US administration against oil companies have led to a collapse in revenues. If Washington changes its policy and lifts the sanctions, it will allow Putin to continue military operations.

It is worth noting that political scientist Vadim Denisov believes that Russia will have the capacity to fight until 2026. The Kremlin continues to increase the military budget, which may lead to Ukraine losing the reparations loan.