Russia is incapable of a large-scale offensive – ISW.

The Russian command previously planned an attack in the northern Kharkiv region and to support the offensive on Pokrovsk. However, the battles of recent months have resulted in losses to Russian reserves. Part of the reserve was used in an unsuccessful offensive in Kharkiv, attacks on Pokrovsk and in the Donetsk region, as well as in response to the Ukrainian counteroffensive in the Kursk region.

The current Russian offensive operation in the summer of 2024 is likely to reach its climax in the coming weeks and months. However, Russian troops may still continue to conduct offensive operations at a significantly slower pace across the territory of Ukraine. In this way, they hope that consistent offensive pressure will prevent the Ukrainian Armed Forces from gathering the manpower and resources necessary to challenge the initiative across the entire theater of operations.

Additionally, Russian losses of heavy armored vehicles may force them to change their offensive tactics. Experts predict the culmination of the Russian offensive in the coming weeks or months. However, the occupiers may continue attacks at a slower pace in order to prevent Ukrainian troops from seizing the initiative and launching a counteroffensive.

Key findings of the ISW

• Russia's offensive in eastern Ukraine has not yielded the expected results.
• Ukrainian forces are effectively defending, inflicting significant losses on the enemy.
• Russian resources are depleting, which may lead to a reduction in offensive operations.
• The Ukrainian counteroffensive in the Kursk region has significantly complicated the plans of the Russian command.

The Russians have advanced under Siversk and Pokrovsk, as monitored by the ISW.