Dollar exchange rate for 2026: why the hryvnia will not cross the 45 hryvnias boundary.

According to ТСН: The draft state budget for 2026 has set the dollar exchange rate at 45.7 hryvnias. Experts predict that the hryvnia may weaken against the US dollar, but it is unlikely to exceed the psychological barrier of 45 UAH per dollar.

Expert forecasts

Sergiy Magomedov, head of the board of 'Globus Bank', believes that throughout 2026, the NBU's policy in the currency market is unlikely to undergo significant changes, and interventions by the National Bank will continue to control potentially chaotic fluctuations in the exchange rate.

Dollar rate in the first quarter

From January to March, the official dollar rate is predicted to fluctuate between 42.6 and 43 hryvnias. Among the factors that may restrain the devaluation of the hryvnia, the tax payments by businesses for 2025 (which will require the purchase of hryvnias) and the seasonal decrease in demand for currency are highlighted.

Impact of the war on the exchange rate

If military actions continue throughout the year, the maximum official dollar exchange rate may reach 44-45 hryvnias, while the euro will rise to 51-52 hryvnias. In the event of the conflict's resolution, the official dollar rate may settle at 44 hryvnias, while the euro may be at 51 hryvnias.

Experts have also provided forecasts for the dollar and euro exchange rates for January 2026, noting that the first week of the month (until the 8th-10th) will be a period of calm.

Forex forecasts from specialists indicate a difficult economic situation in Ukraine caused by the war, as well as internal economic factors. Prospects for the future remain uncertain, but monitoring exchange rate fluctuations and reactions from the NBU will remain important for the country's financial market.