ISW analyzed Russia's ability for a large-scale offensive.

The Institute for the Study of War stated that the Russian military command had been preparing an offensive operation in the summer of 2024 for several months and had accumulated operational reserves and resources for its implementation. However, in recent months of exhausting combat operations, these resources have been significantly reduced.

It is noted that in May 2024, Russian troops intended to create a new operational group of troops with unused operational reserves numbering up to 70,000 people. This group was supposed to conduct an offensive operation in the north of the Kharkiv region and create operational reserves for the offensive of the Central grouping of troops on Pokrovsk in the summer of this year.

However, Russian troops have likely spent a significant portion of these reserves on an offensive operation in the north of the Kharkiv region, which has stalled, increasing the pace of the offensive in the Pokrovsk direction and in the western part of the Donetsk region, as well as in response to the Ukrainian incursion into the Kursk region.

ISW analysts note that Russians continue to suffer losses of heavy armored vehicles during major unsuccessful mechanized assaults along the entire front line, especially in the western part of the Donetsk region. The Russian troops have likely accumulated a large quantity of equipment for such mechanized assaults. However, significant medium and long-term constraints on Russian armor stockpiles will become more noticeable as losses increase and may force the Russian military command to reconsider the benefits of continuing such intensive mechanized activity in Ukraine.

The report also notes that the continuation of significant losses of Russian troops in the Donetsk region and further redeployment of Russian troops to the Kursk region will weaken Russia's ability to support offensive operations in the northeast and east of Ukraine. Although institute analysts believe that it is more likely that Russian troops will continue to reduce offensive activity in less prioritized front sectors than doing so evenly along the entire front line.

"The current Russian offensive operation in the summer of 2024 is likely to culminate in the coming weeks and months. However, Russian troops may nonetheless continue to conduct offensive operations at a much lower pace across Ukraine. In this way, they hope that consistent offensive pressure will prevent the Armed Forces of Ukraine from accumulating manpower and resources necessary to challenge the initiative across the entire theater of operations," the ISW report states.

Source: RBC-Ukraine