Ukrainians will massively return home only after 2027: NBU forecast.

Massive return of Ukrainian migrants

The massive return of Ukrainian migrants to their homeland will not happen before 2027. This was reported by the in its July inflation report.

Mass return of Ukrainian migrants is expected no earlier than 2027

According to NBU estimates, the current dynamics of emigration are supported by high security risks, such as missile strikes on Ukrainian territory and terrorist acts against civilians. The degree of adaptation of Ukrainians to life in other countries is increasing: many have found jobs, pay taxes, and children attend local schools.

The European Union has extended the temporary protection for Ukrainian citizens until March 2027. After that, EU member states will have to make a decision: either grant Ukrainians a new legal status or create conditions for their return home. The specific steps will depend on both national governments and the level of integration of Ukrainians into the societies of host countries.

The NBU predicts that in 2025 and 2026, the outflow of migrants will continue at a rate of about 200 thousand people per year. The return of migrants will begin in 2027, but even then, according to updated estimates, the net return will only be 100 thousand people.

Prolonged migration will have serious economic consequences. The NBU notes that it will lead to a labor shortage, especially in certain industries and regions. This, in turn, will restrain the pace of economic recovery, promote wage growth faster than productivity, and create additional inflationary pressure.

Among the main risks are the escalation of hostilities, new occupations, or prolonged instability, as well as active actions by European governments to retain Ukrainians in their labor markets. If these factors materialize, the number of migrants will only increase.

At the same time, the NBU notes that the return could be accelerated by stabilization of the security situation, large investments in infrastructure reconstruction, the creation of new jobs, and active government campaigns to stimulate repatriation.

It should be noted that in the Czech Republic, a new system for determining the minimum wage took effect on January 1, 2025. For the first time, it is linked to the average wage across the country. This means that the minimum wage will now be automatically updated every year based on forecasts, ensuring its stable growth.

According to the inflation report of the National Bank of Ukraine, the mass return of Ukrainian migrants to their homeland is planned no earlier than 2027, and the labor shortage caused by prolonged migration may negatively affect the development of the economy and lead to increased inflationary pressure.