Election of the Pope. The favorite of the bookmakers significantly outpaced competitors.

The Vatican announced the death of Pope Francis, who led the Catholic Church since 2013. This sparked discussions about candidates for the new Pope around the world. In particular, bookmakers began accepting bets on the next Pope, with favorites being Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle from the Philippines and Pietro Parolin from Italy. According to Polymarket, bets on Parolin were made by more than 37% of participants, with the total amount of bets exceeding $3.6 million. As for Tagle, he is supported by 26% of participants.

How do bets on the Pope work?

Bets on the new Pope become a subject of gambling forecasts. Bookmakers and crypto platforms allow players to bet on the likely winner of the conclave. The size of the bets depends on the popularity of the candidates, their political views, and support among the cardinals. Predictions do not influence the decision on the election of the new Pope.

Main candidates

Besides Tagle and Parolin, the following candidates are being considered:

• Matteo Zuppi (Italy) - 12% of bets
• Peter Turkson (Ghana) - 8%
• Peter Erdő (Hungary) - 9%
• Pierre Batista Pizzaballa (Jerusalem) - 4%
• Robert Sarah (Guinea) - 3%
• Raymond Burke (USA) - 1%

Attempts to monetize the election of the Pope

In 1591, Pope Gregory XIV banned betting on the election of the Pope under the threat of excommunication. However, this law was repealed in 1918.

Currently, there is no canon law regarding conclave betting, - said Edward Peters, a professor of canon law at the Sacred Heart Seminary in Detroit.

Bets on past papal elections significantly differed from the actual results of the conclave. In 2013, favorites were Angelo Scola from Italy and Peter Turkson from Ghana, while the winner was Jorge Bergoglio from Argentina, who had low chances of winning.

How is the election of the new Pope conducted?

The process of electing a new Pope, known as a conclave, will begin in May. Voting will be held behind closed doors and will be secret. Cardinals under 80 years old will gather in the Sistine Chapel to vote for the new pontiff. If no candidate receives two-thirds of the votes, the voting will repeat until a winner is determined.

After the death of Pope Francis, who advocated reforms to modernize the church and actively participated in addressing global issues, the Catholic community faces the question: who will be the next head of the Vatican?