December 2025: what will change in salaries, pensions, and food prices.

According to ТСН: What changes can Ukrainians expect from December 1, 2025? The TSN.ua website is launching a new project where experts share forecasts regarding economic changes that may impact our lives every month.

Analysts answer five main questions:

• How will salaries change;

• Will pensions increase, and for whom;

• What will inflation be like, and will prices for basic food products change;

• What will be the exchange rate of the hryvnia against the dollar;

• What will happen to fuel prices, affecting the cost of any goods or services.

So, find out what to expect on the 'economic front' in December this year.

Experts: expert of the Economic Discussion Club Oleg Pendzin, head of the secretariat of the Entrepreneurs' Council under the Cabinet of Ministers economist AndriyZablovsky, and expert on energy and fuel market issues Gennady Ryabtsev.

Salaries: will increase, but not for everyone

In 2025, salaries in Ukraine will continue to rise. According to the State Statistics Service, the average salary is UAH 26,623. Since the beginning of January 2025, it has increased by 18%, in January the average salary was UAH 22,500, thus, salary growth exceeds inflation rates.

The average salary in industry exceeds UAH 26,000, while officials and military personnel receive the highest salaries – over UAH 28,000. In the agricultural sector, earnings are more than UAH 21,400, in medicine – UAH 17,000, and in education – UAH 14,000. We remind you that the earnings in the last two categories are financed from the state budget.

Andriy Zablovsky noted that salary growth was uneven – highest in industry, and lowest in the budget sector.

“The average salary, like the average 'temperature in the hospital', is not representative,” said Andriy Zablovsky. “The wages are significantly raised where there is production of goods and a shortage of qualified workers. This is why doctors, teachers, and other budget workers have almost not felt the salary increase. However, December earnings will be higher for everyone, as traditionally bonuses and incentives are calculated at the year's end.”

Oleg Pendzin assessed the average salary in December at around UAH 27,000, with salary growth in industry expected to be higher than average figures for Ukraine, while other sectors will remain at November levels.

Pensions: additional payments for long-livers and working pensioners

Pension payments are the most conservative component and change once a year. Each year, in March, there is indexing for non-working pensioners, and in April for working ones. In December of this year, increases will affect individuals aged 65, 70, 75, 80 and older.

According to the Pension Fund information, 65-year-old non-working pensioners with the necessary work period will have the right to a pension of not less than 40% of the minimum wage, which currently amounts to UAH 3,200.

Long-livers aged 70 and over will receive an additional pension allowance: UAH 300 for those aged 70–74, UAH 450 for those aged 75–79, and UAH 570 for those aged 80 and older. The allowance is assigned automatically.

Also, in December, pensions may be increased for working pensioners who did not receive indexing in April. According to explanations from the Ministry of Social Policy, indexing is conducted no earlier than two years after the previous recalculation.

For other pensioners, the pension amount will not change.

Inflation: “golden eggs” and meat at UAH 300

The level of inflation is a complex issue. The State Statistics Service reported that since the beginning of 2025, it has amounted to 7.3% (data for 10 months). The forecast for November will raise inflation to approximately 8% for the year.

Popular food products have already significantly risen in price. Bread – by 9.9%, meat and meat products – by 21.6%, fruits – by 27%. Prices for vegetables for borscht (potatoes, cabbage, carrots, beets, onions) have decreased by 40% since the beginning of the year, while chicken eggs have decreased by 20% compared to January.

Andriy Zablovsky noted that in December, the price increase of dairy products, meat, bread, eggs, and vegetables will continue. Apples may rise in price to UAH 60-70/kg, and the egg price will increase due to the traditional winter decrease in hen laying.

“The price of vegetables and fruits will vary in different regions; the closer to the front line, the more expensive they will be as sellers factor in the cost of the risk of damage to the goods,” Andriy Zablovsky clarified.

Oleg Pendzin predicts that eggs may rise to UAH 80 per dozen in retail and up to UAH 100 in specialty packaging.

Dollar exchange rate: UAH 43 is not that much yet

The dollar has depreciated over the 11 months of this year. In January, its exchange rate was UAH 43 in sales and UAH 42.5 in purchases. The lowest exchange rate was recorded in September: UAH 41.5 and UAH 41. However, from October, the exchange rate has risen again.

Experts believe that in December the dollar will become more expensive.

“The scenario for the dollar is pessimistic,” said Andriy Zablovsky. “We expect the interbank market rate will be UAH 43.5-43 per cashless transaction; much depends on the actions of the National Bank.”

Oleg Pendzin predicts that the dollar exchange rate will reach UAH 43 in sales at the beginning of December, and in the third decade will exceed UAH 43.5.

Fuel: prices will rise by two hryvnias

Fuel prices fluctuated slightly throughout the year, averaging within 5%. Currently, the average price of A-95 gasoline is UAH 59/l, diesel fuel – UAH 56/l, and autogas – UAH 35/l.

Gennady Ryabtsev noted that currently there are no objective reasons for raising fuel prices since oil prices are decreasing. However, closer to the end of December, prices may rise again.

“There are two reasons for the price increase: the growing concentration of the fuel market in the hands of major brands and the increase in excise taxes from January 1, 2026,” Gennady Ryabtsev noted.

Oleg Pendzin added that the rise in the dollar's exchange rate against the hryvnia will also affect fuel prices.

Conclusions

Ukrainians are in for a tough month: salaries and December bonuses will be paid only in January, pensions will increase for only a small number of pensioners, while prices and the dollar exchange rate will rise steadily faster than before.