January 2026: How much will salaries, pensions, and food prices rise.

According to ТСН: In 2026, Ukrainians will face many economic changes, starting in January.

In the new monthly analytical project, you will learn about:

• Changes in salaries in January,

• Increase in pensions and who it will affect,

• Inflation and price fluctuations on essential products,

• The exchange rate of the hryvnia to the dollar,

• Fuel prices that will impact the cost of goods and services.

The experts are: Oleg Pendzin, Andriy Shevchishin and Gennady Ryabtsev.

Salaries: tightening the belt

According to experts, the average salary in January will decrease compared to December. It is expected that there will be no 13th salaries, bonuses, or incentives, and business activity in the first half of January is traditionally low, which will affect the income of many professions.

If in December the average earnings will be around 28,500 - 30,000 UAH, then in January there could be a decrease of 2,500 - 3,000 UAH.

“Those who do not receive a fixed salary but depend on the monthly performance will lose the most,” says Oleg Pendzin.

Andriy Shevchishin expresses hope that average salaries in January will still be higher, although lower compared to December. “In January, based on my estimates, the average salary will be 27,750 UAH,” he adds.

Pensions: more money, but you have to earn for longer or there will be 'small indexing'

From January 1, the minimum insurance record necessary to receive a pension will again increase. In January, a 'small indexing' of pensions will also begin, related to the increase in the subsistence minimum.

Those who receive the minimum pension will receive an additional 234 UAH, while the maximum pension will increase by 2,340 UAH.

Inflation: excise taxes and 'generator markup'

Forecasts by experts regarding inflation differ. Oleg Pendzin believes that inflation will remain low, around 0.5%. The main reason for this will be a decrease in consumer demand.

“Non-perishable goods will not become more expensive: milk, fresh products,” believes Oleg Pendzin.

On the contrary, Andriy Shevchishin forecasts an increase in inflation to 1.5% due to rising salaries and pensions.

Dollar exchange rate: up, but insignificantly

Experts do not expect significant changes in the dollar exchange rate in January. The National Bank restrains the increase in the rate, and support from the EU also matters.

“I believe that the NBU will keep the euro exchange rate below 50 UAH,” analyzes Andriy Shevchishin.

Fuel: it will become more expensive to drive

From January 1, the excise tax on fuel will increase, leading to higher prices for gasoline and diesel fuel.

“The excise on gasoline will increase by 29 euros per 1,000 liters, which will raise prices by 1.5 - 2 UAH/l,” adds Gennady Ryabtsev.

Conclusions

January may become a month of stability and slight improvement in the living standards of Ukrainians due to the increase in social standards. We hope that the increase in salaries and pensions will not devalue the successful growth.