Analysts assessed the chances of the Ukrainian national team to qualify for the Football World Cup.

The analytical portal Football Meets Data calculated the chances of the Ukrainian football team to qualify for the 2026 World Cup. According to experts, the probability that our team will take first place in its group and receive a direct spot for the tournament is 17%. France is the favorite of the group with a probability of 82%. Ukraine has chances for second place - 67%.

Group D: chances of the national teams

• France - 82% (first place), 18% (second place)
• Ukraine - 17% (first place), 67% (second place)
• Iceland - 1% (first place), 12% (second place)
• Azerbaijan - 0.2% (first place), 4% (second place)

Match calendar for Group D

1st round. 09.05.2025

• Ukraine - France 21:45
• Iceland - Azerbaijan 21:45

2nd round. 09.09.2025

• Azerbaijan - Ukraine 19:00
• France - Iceland 21:45

3rd round. 10.10.2025

• Iceland - Ukraine 21:45
• France - Azerbaijan 21:45

4th round. 13.10.2025

• Ukraine - Azerbaijan 21:45
• Iceland - France 21:45

5th round. 13.11.2025

• Azerbaijan - Iceland 19:00
• France - Ukraine 21:45

6th round. 16.11.2025

• Ukraine - Iceland 19:00
• Azerbaijan - France 19:00

World Cup 2026. Qualifying cycle

UEFA has 16 spots. The qualifying rounds in the European zone will take place from March 2025 to March 2026 and will consist of two rounds.

1st round of qualification: 12 groups will play in a group system. Group winners will receive direct spots for the final stage. 12 teams finishing second and the best group winners of the Nations League that finish lower than second place in the group stage will participate in playoff mini-tournaments.

2nd round of qualification: playoff mini-tournaments in March 2026. Four winners will receive spots for the World Cup. 

AFC, CAF, CONCACAF, CONMEBOL, OFC will have their own qualifying processes, as well as the corresponding number of spots for the World Cup.

World Cup 2026. Final tournament

The 2026 World Cup will be expanded to 48 teams. 12 groups of four teams will be formed. The top two teams from each group and the eight best third-placed teams will advance to the Round of 16.

Matches will take place in 16 cities in Canada, Mexico, and the USA. The opening match will be held in Mexico City, and the final in New York.

Russia has been banned from the World Cup qualifying draw.