Economist Fursa: Why the Russian Economy is Currently in Its Weakest Position Since 2022.

According to ТСН: Economist and blogger Sergey Fursa explained whether the Russian economy is truly on the brink of collapse, which interests many Ukrainians.

According to him, as of today, Russia is not on the brink of collapse. However, Fursa emphasizes that the country is currently in its weakest position since 2022, and the situation will worsen as long as the war continues. He stated:

“But the truth is that Russia is currently in its weakest position since 2022. And while the war continues, the situation will constantly worsen. All these belligerent statements from Putin, where he showed Europe Kuzkina mat and again put 'Oreshnik' on combat duty, should not mislead people.”

Fursa is confident that the Kremlin has spent its accumulated oil dollars, and economic growth has already ended. The only way out for Russia now is to print money, which will lead to inflation, depreciation of the ruble, and a shortage of goods.

“There is nowhere to take money from, you can only print. Every day of printing will bring it closer to the conditional 'Venezuelan' scenario with galloping inflation and a shortage of goods. Not immediately, but very definitely. And the budget deficit will remain at a crazy level while the war continues.”

Fursa also notes that if the Russians try to close the budget deficit through printing money, the catastrophe may not happen immediately, but the crisis will deepen.

Currently, oil prices are the lowest since 2021, and the market for Russia is significantly restricted. The gas market in Europe has been completely lost.

In addition, Russia is facing a shortage of labor and needs migrants to support the economy:

“But at the same time, fascism dominates in Russia, where they call for hatred towards 'others'. And again a trap. Without migration, economic stagnation will be even greater. And migration is impossible because society spreads an atmosphere of hatred, and migrants are immediately sent to war. Again a trap.”

Weapons production also faces difficulties — Russia has exhausted its stockpiles of armored vehicles accumulated since the Soviet era. Although missile and drone production continues, it has not led to strategic successes on the front.

Fursa believes that the worsening situation could prompt the Kremlin to engage in serious negotiations, but Putin's inadequate statements raise doubts about his ability to properly assess threats to the country:

“And when he talks about 'frankness', the question of his rationality only grows. Especially when a person who has very quickly weakened his country puffs his cheeks and says that Russia has finally gained true sovereignty.”

Earlier, Putin threatened new territorial seizures in Ukraine in the event of a breakdown in negotiations.

Fursa's words underscore the seriousness of the economic situation in Russia, which continues to deteriorate due to the war and international sanctions. This could have extremely important consequences not only for the Russians themselves but also for the global political situation, particularly in the context of energy security and stability in the region. It is important for Ukraine to monitor these processes, as they may impact strategic decisions during the conflict.