The dollar will rise by the end of January: a banker’s forecast against the backdrop of heightened demand.

According to ТСН: The market value of the dollar has begun to rise as demand for this currency exceeds its supply. This may continue until the end of January.

Expert forecasts

Taras Lesovyy, the director of the financial markets and investment activities department at Globus Bank, notes in his comments that currently, the demand for the dollar exceeds the supply by only 10%. However, even such a small difference affects the market rate, and in exchange offices, the dollar now costs over 43 hryvnias.

Lesovyy also believes that by the end of January, the demand for the dollar may decrease, after which the official rate will stabilize at a certain level.

Reasons for the rate increase

The reason for the increase in the value of the currency is the purchasing frenzy: due to the rise in dollar and euro prices, people are starting to buy them actively, which strengthens demand.

At the same time, the most significant increase is observed in the cash market, where the difference between buying and selling rates can reach 0.7-1 hryvnia or more.

Taras Lesovyy noted that the National Bank is responding to the situation by gradually raising the official dollar rate, leading to a controlled devaluation of the hryvnia.

“In this case, the main reason is purely economic feasibility. Under conditions of a stable discount rate and powerful currency reserves, it is a matter of controlled devaluation,” explains the banker.

He also notes that in banks, the difference in the euro rate currently varies from 0.33 to 0.9 hryvnias.

Lesovyy predicts that emotional fluctuations will subside, and the cash market will return to more stable trends.

Let us remind you that as of January 8, in Ukrainian exchange offices, the dollar rate exceeds the official figure of the National Bank of Ukraine. Current data indicates that the average buying rate of the dollar in exchange offices is 43.04 UAH, while the average selling rate is 43.29 UAH per dollar.

The situation in the currency market remains tense; however, experts’ forecasts promise a possibility of stabilization. Whether it will be possible to reduce demand for the dollar will take time to show, but monitoring the market by the National Bank and the actions of commercial banks may play a significant role in this process.