War and Demography: Can Ukraine Restore Its Population After 2026?.

According to ТСН: In February 2026, the fifth year of Russia's full-scale war against Ukraine will begin, which has lasted almost as long as the German-Soviet part of World War II. These four years have posed not only a military but also a demographic challenge for Ukraine, accompanied by a decline in birth rates, mass emigration, and an increase in the average age of the population on both sides. The question arises: how long will Ukraine endure such a situation?

Demographers believe that the war has led to significant losses, and the decision of young people aged 18-22 to emigrate abroad has strategically negative consequences. This is stated by

“The fifth year of war is a shock, and a timely response to the challenges is key”

, says the deputy director for scientific work of the Institute of Demography and Social Studies.

The Struggle of Older Nations: Conflict Differences

— What demographic shocks has Ukraine experienced over these years?

 

“The war as a whole has been a shock for the entire country, and the negative impact on demographics began back in 2014”

.

— How will this affect demographics if the war lasts longer than the war between Germany and the USSR?

 

“War brings a decrease in birth rates and an increase in mortality, as well as a rise in migration activity”

.

Predictions of War Duration and Resource Availability

— Can you provide predictions regarding the end of the war?

 

“No one can say for sure when the war will end”

. At the same time, the year that the war ends is important for demographic forecasts, as the situation after the war may significantly change demographic dynamics.

Estimating Demographic Losses

— How can we calculate the demographic losses from the war?

 

“Estimation of demographic losses is only possible after the war or social catastrophe ends”

. For this, reliable information is needed, which is currently difficult to obtain.

• Excess Mortality: the excess of mortality during the war over the normal level.

• Birth Deficit: a decrease in birth rates during the war.

• Migration Losses: the balance of migration of those who left during the war.

Population Decline

— What changes have occurred in the population of Ukraine?

 

“We currently estimate the population in the controlled territory to be 29 million”

. It is noted that the population decline is occurring due to decreasing birth rates and emigration.

Negative Consequences of Youth Emigration

— Are there positive aspects to allowing youth to emigrate?

 

“I do not believe that this aspect has a positive impact”

, says the expert, emphasizing the negative consequences of such a decision for demographics and the labor market.

Today we do not have accurate data on the number of migrants, but the return of youth from abroad remains uncertain.

Thus, the situation with demographic losses in Ukraine during the war remains complex, and predictions regarding the return of the population from abroad raise concerns. Important conclusions can only be drawn after the hostilities are over when more accurate information about demographic changes becomes available.