Imports of Russian oil to India have fallen to a three-year low: reasons for the sharp decline.

According to ТСН: Supplies of Russian oil to India in December may decrease to the lowest level in the last three years. According to analytical company Kpler, India is importing approximately 1.1 million barrels of Russian oil per day this month — the lowest figure since November 2022.

It is known that India's demand for Russian oil is gradually declining due to increasing sanctions from the United States.

Changes in Purchases

In particular, India's largest private oil refiner — Reliance — halted purchases of Russian oil at the end of October. This decision was made after the U.S. imposed sanctions against Rosneft and Lukoil, which gave importers a month to complete operations with these companies.

Currently, Reliance has switched to purchasing oil from suppliers that are not under sanctions.

Import Statistics

According to Kpler's data, in the second half of December, supplies of Russian oil to India decreased to 712 thousand barrels per day, although later the volumes began to slowly rise. For comparison, in November, imports were estimated at 1.8 million barrels per day.

Indian officials forecast that the average daily supply in December will be about 800 thousand barrels.

Analysts link the reduction in imports primarily to Reliance's pause in purchases, which was previously the largest buyer of Russian oil.

In addition, Kpler's data shows that supplies to the HPCL-Mittal Energy Ltd. oil terminal in Mundra have decreased. The Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Ltd. is not importing Russian oil in December at all — the first time since September 2022.

It is also known that Russia is currently spending a significantly smaller share of its economy on the war than Ukraine, but its economic model is gradually collapsing, and stagnation has continued for over a year.

Retired U.S. Lieutenant General Ben Hodges noted that Ukraine's victory strategy lies in destroying Russia's ability to export oil and gas.

The decrease in imports of Russian oil to India is an important indicator of changes in the global energy markets and the impact of sanctions on Russia's economy. As the facts suggest, the decline in purchases by major Indian companies can significantly affect Russia's financial situation amid the ongoing war. The situation may continue to change depending on further actions from the U.S. and increasing pressure on the Russian energy sector.