ISW assessed the likelihood of a new Russian offensive in spring and summer.

Analysts from the Institute for the Study of War predict that Russia is preparing for a new offensive that could occur in spring and summer 2025. This offensive may be part of Moscow's strategy to intensify pressure on Ukraine in the context of peace negotiations.

The analysis showed that Russian forces have intensified their actions in several directions, particularly in the Lyman, Pokrovsk, and Orikhiv directions, as well as in northern Sumy region. Additionally, Russian troops are advancing towards the administrative border of Donetsk and Dnipropetrovsk regions in the Pokrovsk direction. These actions are used to create chaos and spread fear in the information space.

However, analysts note that Russia has limited reserves to conduct significant offensive operations in Sumy, Kharkiv, and Zaporizhia without repositioning troops. Furthermore, Russia has suffered losses in armored vehicles and personnel over the past three years, which limits its ability to conduct complex operations on multiple fronts.

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