ISW: Russian offensive is running out of steam — forecast for the coming months.

According to analysts at the Institute for the Study of War, the Russian offensive operation is likely to conclude in the coming months.

One of the key factors affecting this forecast is the depletion of reserves. Russian forces have already exhausted a significant portion of their reserves created to support offensive actions in the summer of 2024.

Furthermore, the Russian command is focusing on strengthening mechanized offensive actions to advance through open fields and secure positions in populated areas along the front line. These points can be used as bridgeheads for further operations, such as capturing Kurakhove and Pokrovsk.

Analysts at the Institute for the Study of War also note that autumn weather conditions may limit the maneuverability of Russian infantry, as deciduous trees in windbreaks will lose their leaves, reducing natural camouflage. This makes Russian infantry more vulnerable to reconnaissance and strikes by Ukrainian drones.

Forecast for autumn-winter 2024-2025

According to the Institute for the Study of War's briefings as of October 9, the occupiers continue to advance along the entire front line. However, Ukrainian forces carried out a successful counterattack east of Pokrovsk. This indicates that the fighting remains intense despite the expected conclusion of the Russian offensive operation.