The dollar exchange rate in Ukraine will rise in the fall: three key reasons.

According to inkorr.com: In Ukraine, with the onset of the autumn-winter period, the dollar exchange rates have started to gradually rise. This is happening due to several factors: the activity of farmers, budget payments, and the start of the heating season. At the same time, the impact of the war on the currency market significantly limits this trend.

Financial expert Oleksiy Kozyrev explains: 'We are effectively an agricultural country, and in the spring, when funds are needed for sowing, and in the fall, when harvesting is needed... farmers enter the currency market.'

Agricultural cycle

Since Ukraine is an agricultural state, its economy heavily depends on the seasons of sowing and harvesting campaigns. Farmers need financing to work in the fields, so they sell currency, which increases the amount of hryvnia in the market.

Budget payments

At the end of the budget year, which concludes in December, there are large settlements of the state with contractors and suppliers. This also puts pressure on the hryvnia due to the influx of a significant amount of funds.

Heating season

With the start of the heating season, demand for currency from energy importers increases, as they try to ensure the country has the necessary resources for heating.

The expert emphasizes that the war has a greater impact on the currency market than ordinary seasonal fluctuations, but technological changes in agriculture have begun to reduce this seasonality. Modern conditions present new challenges for the currency market of Ukraine.

Therefore, the development of the situation in the currency market in Ukraine under the influence of the war and various economic factors creates new challenges for the country. In these conditions, it is essential to monitor macroeconomic indicators and adapt to changes in the global economy.