Shutdown in the US and the Forecast for the Hryvnia in October: What to Expect for Ukrainians.

According to inkorr.com: In October, the Ukrainian currency market experiences heightened turbulence due to the end of the financial year and the political crisis in the US, which has led to a partial 'shutdown'. Investors in the global market are nervous due to uncertainty, causing gold prices to reach record highs.

International Storm: The Impact of the 'Shutdown' in the US on Euro/Dollar

The key factor affecting the markets remains the political standoff in the US over the budget, which has led to a partial 'shutdown'. This situation works against the US dollar and creates ideal conditions for speculators.

Financial expert Oleksiy Kozyrev notes that uncertainty leads to fluctuations in the currency market, particularly for the euro/dollar pair. Speculations can cause instability and force investors to seek protection in gold.

Domestic Risks and Predictions

In Ukraine, domestic factors also influence the currency market. For example, the beginning of a new month and quarter reduces business activity, while the harvest increases the supply of currency in the interbank market. However, the heating season prompts the government and 'Naftogaz' to purchase currency on the market.

The expert also emphasizes that the growth of state debt may restrain the devaluation of the hryvnia due to increased costs for servicing external debt.

Currency Forecast for October 2025

Oleksiy Kozyrev believes that the National Bank may need between 530 and 720 million dollars to support the hryvnia in October. The expected corridors for the exchange rate in the interbank and cash markets look as follows:

• Interbank:

  • US Dollar: 40.90 - 41.55 UAH/USD.
  • Euro: 48.10 - 48.85 UAH/€.

• Cash Market:

  • US Dollar:

    • Banks: 40.70 - 41.70 UAH/USD.
    • Exchanges: 40.90 - 41.65 UAH/USD.

  • Euro:

    • Banks: 47.80 - 49.00 UAH/€.
    • Exchanges: 48.10 - 48.90 UAH/€.

It is expected that the spread at exchange offices will be 20-25 kopecks for both the dollar and the euro.

Thus, in October, the financial situation will significantly affect the Ukrainian currency market due to increased turbulence caused by political and economic circumstances in the world. Investors and experts predict fluctuations in exchange rates and possible changes in the market under these conditions of uncertainty.