Ukrainian Hryvnia's February 2026 Outlook: A Slowdown in Depreciation and What Comes Next.

Hryvnia Depreciation in February 2026

According to Novyny.live: The Ukrainian hryvnia experienced depreciation in February 2026, impacting its exchange rates against the US dollar and the euro. However, economist Oleksiy Plotnikov notes that the pace of devaluation has slowed somewhat following a sharp decline in January, which may indicate a period of relative near-term stability for the currency.

Exchange Rate Dynamics

The start of 2026 saw an accelerated devaluation of the hryvnia in Ukraine. During the first week of February 2026, the official hryvnia-to-dollar rate fluctuated within a range of 42.81 to 43.19 UAH/USD. A record rate of 43.41 UAH/USD was reached. Meanwhile, the official hryvnia-to-euro rate decreased from 51.24 UAH to 50.76 UAH. As of February 7th, the dollar-to-euro ratio shifted from 1.20 to 1.18 USD/EUR.

Oleksiy Plotnikov also stated that the official hryvnia-to-dollar rate will not cross the psychological threshold of 44 UAH/USD next week, and the rate against the euro will not exceed the 51.30 UAH/EUR mark.

According to the expert, the reasons for this situation are linked to a shortage of funds to cover the state budget deficit. He also emphasized that the European Central Bank is currently deciding how to respond to these currency movements. Should the situation destabilize, the ECB would have to artificially maintain the euro-to-dollar rate at a minimum of 1.20 USD/EUR.

Current data suggests that Ukraine's currency is being influenced by both domestic and external economic factors. The hryvnia's performance is tied to global financial market trends and the reactions of central banks to economic shifts. Monitoring these variables will provide a clearer picture of future exchange rate dynamics. The hryvnia's stability remains a key concern for Ukraine's economy as it navigates ongoing financial pressures.