The Hryvnia Holds Steady: How 90 Billion Euros from the EU Impacted the Market.

According to ТСН: Despite concerns, December did not bring Ukrainians a dollar at 43 hryvnias. Thanks to the active actions of the National Bank and significant financial support from the European Union, the currency market at the beginning of 2026 demonstrates relative stability.

Why Has the Hryvnia Held Its Position?

Experts identify two key factors that helped the national currency stay afloat at the end of the year:

1. NBU Interventions: The regulator actively lowered excess demand, maintaining the exchange rate within 42.5–42.6 UAH/$.

2. Money from Europe: The EU Council's decision to allocate 90 billion euros to Ukraine for 2026–2027 became a powerful signal for the market, assuring investors of the stability of currency reserves to cover the budget deficit.

Forecast for January: Calm or Gradual Depreciation?

Most analysts believe that the first week of January (until the 8th–10th) will be a period of stability. After that, two scenarios are possible.

Expert Andriy Shevchishin notes that the National Bank will not allow the Euro exchange rate to rise above 50 UAH, as this could trigger a new surge in inflation.

“Considering the factor of preparation for possible elections, a sharp depreciation of the hryvnia is unlikely. January may pass with slight fluctuations within 0.5–1%,” the expert notes.

Economist Oleg Pendzin predicts that cash markets will feel some pressure. In his opinion:

• Dollar: By the end of January, it may rise to 42.7–42.8 UAH.

• Euro: In the cash market, it is likely to exceed 50 UAH/€.

What Will Impact the Exchange Rate in January:

• NBU Actions: The regulator will continue the policy of 'managed flexibility'.

• EUR/USD Pair: Global quotes of the euro against the dollar directly influence prices in Ukrainian exchange offices.

• Fuel Demand: Increased fuel consumption for generators forces importers to buy additional currency.

Thus, at the beginning of 2026, the hryvnia exchange rate demonstrates stability, largely thanks to financial support from Europe. However, analysts warn of potential fluctuations in the exchange rate in the coming months, considering current economic conditions and the political situation. The situation in the currency market remains under close control, and the actions of the National Bank will be crucial in the coming weeks.