NBU kept the key interest rate at 15.5%: when to expect a decrease.

According to inkorr.com: In October, the Board of the National Bank of Ukraine decided to maintain the key interest rate at 15.5%. Some members of the Monetary Policy Committee supported this decision, considering it appropriate to keep the rate unchanged.

'In their opinion, since the September meeting, the distribution of risks for inflation has significantly worsened. Thus, higher energy deficits and an increase in the budget deficit may intensify price pressures. Given the elevated inflation expectations, the NBU decided to postpone the start of the interest rate reduction cycle,' the bank reported.

Some members of the MPC discussed the possibility of reducing the key interest rate to 15% as early as October.

'These participants in the discussion believe that the risks for inflation dynamics remain balanced, and easing monetary conditions may support economic recovery,' the NBU noted.

Prospects for the key interest rate

The MPC members have differing opinions on the possible reduction of the key interest rate, with some believing that it is unlikely to happen before January 2026.

'Significant budget expenditures and a complex situation in the energy sector may complicate the easing of monetary policy in the coming months. Other MPC members consider the possibility of reducing the rate by the end of the current year,' they explained at the NBU.

Important aspects in this context include reaching agreements with the IMF and reparations loans based on assets belonging to Russia. Many participants in the discussion hope that the key interest rate could decrease to 12.5% - 13.5% by the end of next year.

At the last meeting of the Board of the National Bank of Ukraine, it was decided to keep the key interest rate at 15.5%. Experts believe that the growing risks for inflation forced the central bank to refrain from starting the rate reduction. Further changes in the key interest rate may not occur until next year, depending on agreements with the IMF and other economic factors.

Thus, the situation surrounding the key interest rate remains tense. In the context of an unstable economic situation, the NBU is cautiously approaching the possibility of rate reductions, monitoring developments both in Ukraine and abroad. This, in turn, may be reflected in the overall economic environment and investment activity in the country.