A New War in Europe is Inevitable: Why NATO is Preparing for Confrontation with the Russian Federation.

According to ТСН: In connection with the preparations for possible peace agreements between Kyiv and Moscow, the Western world feels the threat of a new major war. Doubts about the Kremlin's further intentions regarding NATO countries have turned into confidence that a large-scale conflict with Russia is becoming almost inevitable.

Hanna Notte, the director of the Eurasian Nonproliferation Program at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies, notes in her article that regardless of how the war in Ukraine evolves, Europe may face a revanchist and militarized Russia in the coming years.

Why Loud Predictions About War with Russia Can Be Dangerous

Notte emphasizes that the Kremlin does not hide its intention to revise NATO borders and alter the security architecture in Europe. She also mentions that Vladimir Putin increasingly asserts Russia's readiness for war should Europe initiate a conflict.

Furthermore, the new U.S. national security strategy, which focuses on 'patriotic European parties' sympathetic to Moscow, highlights the risk of strategic isolation for Europe in its confrontation with aggressive Russia. Meanwhile, the European population remains apathetic in the face of the hybrid campaign by the Russian Federation, which adds to the problems.

The author also refers to the prolonged debates and delays in addressing defense spending increases among European countries over the past three and a half years. She believes that Europe must act; otherwise, it will not be prepared for the threat from Russia.

Notte notes that excessive concern about a possible Russian attack on NATO countries can have its 'underlying pitfalls.' After misjudgments regarding Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022, some Europeans may exaggerate threats, convinced of the inevitability of an attack on Europe.

Will the Kremlin Dare a Direct Attack?

Notte believes it is important to maintain an objective analysis and remember that even a hostile Russia may not conduct a large-scale attack on NATO countries. She thinks the Kremlin may believe that a hybrid campaign fully satisfies its goals.

She also points out that loud claims about the inevitability of war can lead to an escalation of conflict, as Russian elites already use mirror rhetoric, asserting that it is Europe preparing for war against Russia.

Notte concludes by noting that confrontation with Russia will remain an important aspect of European security, emphasizing the necessity for Europeans to seek ways to reduce military risks with Russia and to think carefully about their words and actions.

Let us recall that on December 11 in Berlin, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte urged European countries to prepare for war. He emphasized that Russia has brought war back to the EU, the scale of which may grow to a global one.

The topic of the war in Ukraine and the threat of aggression from Russia remains relevant for Europe. Therefore, it is important not only to understand military risks but also how to avoid escalation and seek diplomatic solutions. The realities of modernity require EU countries to be attentive and decisive in security matters.