Russian border guards landed in Estonia: ISW warns of preparations for conflict with NATO.

According to ТСН: An incident involving Russian border guards took place on the territory of Estonia, who illegally landed on the shore using a hovercraft. Experts believe that this case may be a stage in Moscow's preparations for a potential conflict with NATO.

According to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), on December 17, three Russian border guards briefly entered Estonia. They reached the stone breakwater in Vasknarva on the Narva River, which divides Russia and Estonia, and after a short walk along the Estonian coast, returned back to Russia.

Crossing the Border

Estonian Interior Minister Igor Taro noted that this border crossing took place in an area where Russian vessels are required to obtain prior permission to enter Estonian waters. Taro emphasized that these rules are usually observed by the Russian side, but the reasons for the incident remain unknown.

Threat from Russia

Analysts also mentioned that on October 10, Estonian border guards observed seven armed Russian servicemen near the border in uniforms not related to the border service; however, they did not cross into NATO territory.

“ISW continues to assess that Russia is intensifying covert and overt attacks on Europe and has moved to the so-called 'Phase Zero' - an information-psychological stage of preparation - aimed at creating conditions for a possible future conflict between NATO and Russia,” the report states.

The December 17 incident marked the first case where uniformed Russian military personnel crossed into the territory of a NATO member state since Russia moved to 'Phase Zero' in September 2025.

As a reminder, in September and October 2025, Russia carried out aerial provocations against NATO, violating the borders of Estonia, Romania, and Poland, which experts view as a test of the Alliance's resolve. Estonia, in particular, has significantly increased its defense budget to a record 5.4% of GDP and plans to invest over 10 billion euros in its army by 2029.

This incident highlights the tension in the region and the potential threat from Russia to NATO countries. Estonia, which marks increased defense spending, demonstrates readiness to repel potential threats, indicating the seriousness of the situation and emphasizing the importance of support from NATO allies.