How long can Ukraine fight without American assistance? WSJ Forecast.

Ukraine could run out of weapons by summer without US aid

According to The Wall Street Journal, if Ukraine does not receive additional assistance from the US, its weapons may last until summer. According to former Pentagon official Celeste Wallander, the weapons supplied or dispatched by Joe Biden's administration will last at least until mid-year. However, in the summer, the Armed Forces may find themselves without ammunition and unable to use some of the most modern weaponry.

Ukrainian analysts believe that domestic weapons supplies can extend this term. Therefore, Ukraine will have to focus on ramping up its military production and receiving more support from Europe.

According to the publication, Ukraine has already created a powerful military industry, producing weapons worth 30 billion dollars annually, which is six times more than before. In 2024, the country produced 1.5 million drones that became the primary means of defense along the front line, allowing it to control Russian attacks with minimal losses. This year, it is planned to produce 3 thousand missiles and 30 thousand long-range drones.

According to a Western official, Ukraine is currently producing or financing 55% of its military equipment. The US supplies 20%, and Europe 25%.

However, some US supplies, such as advanced air defense systems, ground-to-ground ballistic missiles, navigation systems, and long-range rocket artillery, are difficult to replace in the near future. Europe simply does not produce enough or does not produce these types of weapons at all.

We remind you that Finance Minister Serhiy Marchenko stated that Ukraine has sufficient funds and weapons to resist Russian aggression until mid-2025.

Defense spending from the state budget in 2024 amounted to almost 2.1 trillion UAH or 51.9 billion dollars.