NBU forecasts salary growth in 2026: who will earn more.

According to ТСН: The labor market in Ukraine remains in favor of job seekers. Due to mobilization and migration processes, companies face a significant shortage of qualified personnel, and this problem is likely to continue next year. As a result, Ukrainians can expect salary increases.

This information is provided by the report of the National Bank of Ukraine on financial stability.

Why salaries will increase

According to the NBU, the main reason for the increase in salaries is the competition for personnel.

“The NBU expects a continued net outflow of the population next year, so pressure on the labor market will persist. Accordingly, enterprises will continue to have to raise salaries to compete for workers.”

In the second half of 2025, an annual increase in salaries in the private sector of over 20% is already being recorded. According to a survey by the European Business Association, 74% of companies recognize the shortage of personnel as a serious problem.

Not just the private sector

Income growth will also be influenced by government decisions. In 2026, an increase in the minimum wage is planned.

“An additional factor in income growth, especially in the budget sector, will be the planned increase of 8.1% in the minimum wage in 2026.”

There's one catch

However, the National Bank warns that the rate of salary growth may slow down compared to the current year due to limited financial capacity of businesses.

“The ability to spend more on personnel is limited, production will expand slowly, so salary growth will slow down.”

Despite this, a further decline in inflation will contribute to an increase in the real incomes of Ukrainians, which will enhance their purchasing power.

It should be noted that forecasts regarding teachers' salaries in 2026 have been announced in the Verkhovna Rada. According to statistics, salaries in education are currently the lowest in the economy, and the situation is expected to change, which is an important signal for education in Ukraine.