Ukrainian operation in the Kursk region could turn into a disaster – The New York Times.

Title: Ukrainian Armed Forces created a shocking operation in the Kursk region

Amidst the bloody war usually exploited by Russia, the Ukrainian Armed Forces (UAF) have carried out a special operation in the Kursk region in an attempt to shock the Russians. This is a new strategy, as previous attempts to drive the Russians out of Ukrainian territories have failed. Also, air attacks and limited raids on Russia have not achieved the desired outcome.

“This is an attempt to shock Russia in some way. It could give Ukraine a victory or at least make them feel good for a few days. Does this change the larger calculation on the battlefield? That remains to be seen,” the author’s colleague Eric Schmitt, who is responsible for US national security, said.

The New York Times lists potential advantages of the operation in the Kursk region:

• If Russia fortifies its troops at home, Ukrainian forces will have more chances to regain control of their land.
• Recently, the morale of Ukrainians has been falling, as the last significant battlefield successes were achieved in the fall of 2022. A major strike against Russia could re-mobilize Ukrainians and restore their faith in victory.
• Visible successes of Ukraine may convince Western allies that their military aid expenditures were not wasted.
• The rout of Russians on their own territory demonstrates that all the “red lines” and “escalation risks” are merely myths and Kremlin bluff, which should not be taken into account. This may persuade allies to remove all restrictions and establish enhanced weaponry against the Russian Federation.
• Gains in the Kursk region could be used as a bargaining chip in peace negotiations, but for this, it is necessary to hold the captured territory.

Nevertheless, analysts remain skeptical about the success of the operation in the Kursk region due to Russia's large reserves to intervene in a new crisis without the need to withdraw troops from Ukraine. Additionally, by expending resources on the Kursk region, Ukraine might face more complex problems in the Donbas.

“This is a huge gamble by the Ukrainians,” Eric Schmitt said.

According to the acting governor of the Kursk region, Alexei Smirnov, since the beginning of the fighting, the Russians have lost control of 28 settlements, and the analytical firm DeepState estimates that Ukrainians have managed to liberate approximately 44 settlements. They also noted that the status of another 10 settlements remains unknown.

Russian Lieutenant General Andrei Gurulev, a member of the defense committee of the aggressor country, accused Russian military of failing to defend the Kursk region, pointing out their inability to prepare and properly ensure defense.