Armenia refuses to unfreeze its membership in the CSTO.

According to Armenian intelligence, the country does not plan to return to the CSTO in the near future. The reasons that led to the suspension of participation will remain relevant until 2025. This may negatively affect the organization's prestige and undermine its status among other members.

According to forecasts from Armenian intelligence, military spending and weaponry in the South Caucasus countries and their partners will increase. This creates risks for states with limited resources, particularly for Armenia.

The report also notes that a stable and lasting peace between Russia and Ukraine is hard to expect by 2025. This means that Moscow and EU states will continue to arm, defend, and develop their economies.

Intelligence emphasizes that any developments in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict will impact Armenia's security. However, the report does not foresee a new military conflict with Azerbaijan, but there is a risk of local tensions and escalation.