Ukraine's economic growth has slowed: NBU explanation.

Ukraine's real GDP grew less than the forecast for 2024

Head of the NBU Andriy Pyshnyy reported that Ukraine's real GDP increased by 3.4% in 2024, which is less than the forecast provided by the NBU. This slowdown in economic growth occurred compared to the previous year.

According to Pyshnyy, this is explained not only by poor harvests and weak external demand but also by the increased intensity of hostilities and aerial attacks by Russia, which have manifested as risks. All of this has led to a shortage of electricity. The head of the NBU also noted the high security risks concerning the arrival of migrants and a significant labor shortage.

Revised GDP growth forecast for 2025

Considering the security risks and the difficult situation in the labor market, the NBU has lowered the real GDP growth forecast for 2025 to 3.6%. However, the NBU's baseline scenario anticipates a gradual recovery of the economy to normal functioning.

Expected strengthening of economic growth in 2026-2027

Andriy Pyshnyy forecasts a moderate acceleration of economic growth to over 4% in 2026-2027. He noted that the consequences of the war, such as labor and production capital shortages, will continue to constrain the economy. However, investments in energy and production capacities, stable fiscal policy, and growth in private consumption will facilitate economic recovery.