Martial law and mobilization extended until May: what does it mean.

According to ТСН: Ukraine plans to extend martial law and mobilization for another 90 days, until May. The President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky, has submitted a relevant bill to the Verkhovna Rada. This indicates that Russia's war against Ukraine will not end at least in the first half of 2026.

Military expert and former SBU employee Ivan Stupak commented on why the terms of extending martial law and mobilization remain short-term. He noted:

“Martial law is extended in small 'bursts', for 90 days, and not, for example, for 2 years, to look at the situation. The war can end quickly, but it may also last until the end of the year.”

Stupak also expressed the opinion that if the situation with Vladimir Putin changes, the war could take an entirely different direction.

War against Ukraine: resources are still abundant

Stupak, citing open data, indicated that Russian forces can produce about 10-12 combat aircraft per year. He criticized this data, saying:

“The figures from analysts are large, but there is no verification.”

However, the expert believes that there are several circumstances that pressure Russia and force it to consider the possibility of negotiations with the Americans. According to him:

“Perhaps there is some exhaustion that we do not yet see. It is possible that they possess statistics indicating that, for example, in 3 months, they, the Russians, will be fine, and after that period - bad, therefore, for a certain time it is desirable to somehow complete the war.”

War in Ukraine: hybrid ending

He also considers a hybrid option for ending hostilities possible, for example:

“A possible scenario is that ground assaults have ended, but missile strikes continue. This war has shown that any scenario can be realized.”

Former spokesman for the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, military analyst Vladislav Seleznyov, commented:

“The key factor that affects the duration of hostilities is resources. Unfortunately, the Russians have them - many countries continue to buy gas and oil from Russia, funding the so-called SVO.”

Seleznyov emphasized that Ukrainian defense forces are working to reduce the offensive potential of the occupier's army, but it is necessary to be prepared for unpopular decisions from Russia. He explained:

“According to some incomprehensible logic, for Russia to survive, they believe they need to destroy Ukraine. Despite the fact that Russia attacked, not the other way around.”

In his opinion, the situation with support for Ukraine has changed, and currently, American assistance may be unpredictable. He noted that Russia is increasingly using people from Asia and Africa:

“In order to use your potential in a 'black day'.”

Seleznyov also noted that preparing for large-scale mobilization in Russia will take some time:

“It will take several months to 'pump up' the brains of the Russians.”

Recall that earlier it was reported that Zelensky announced two possible scenarios for 2026.

Thus, the extension of martial law and mobilization is evidence that the situation on the front remains tense, and both sides continue to assess their capabilities. At the same time, the analysis of resource provision and strategic decisions becomes particularly important in the context of future negotiations and changing the balance of power.