NBU warns of a sharp increase in fuel prices from 2026: what will rise in price.

According to ТСН: The National Bank of Ukraine warns of a significant rise in automotive fuel prices starting in 2026 due to a planned increase in excise tax. Prices at gas stations will remain stable until the end of 2025, but from January 1, 2026, a rapid increase in the cost of gasoline, diesel fuel, and autogas is expected.

The NBU report states that the increase in excise tax rates will be the main factor in the rise in fuel prices in 2026 and in the following periods. Changes are provided for by current legislation and will come into effect on January 1, 2026.

Increase in Excise Tax Rates

Excise tax rates will rise in the following ratio (per 1000 liters of fuel):

• gasoline: from 271.7 euros to 300.8 euros;

• diesel fuel: from 215.7 euros to 253.8 euros;

• autogas: from 173 euros to 198 euros.

The NBU emphasizes that, despite the decline in wholesale prices for gasoline in the second half of the year, retail prices at gas stations will not undergo significant changes until the end of 2025. This is due to the expected increase in excise taxes, which will affect price signals for the market.

It is reported that a certain decrease in gasoline prices has been recorded in the wholesale market, but no significant changes have occurred in the retail network.

Economic Forecasts

The founder of the Prime Group of Companies, Dmytro Liushkin, believes that the decrease in prices at the end of the year is economically unfeasible:

“There is no point in lowering prices only to raise them again in a few weeks due to new excises. I assume that we will have a prolonged period of stable prices at gas stations until spring.”

According to the NBU, after the introduction of new excise tax rates, the fuel market will enter a phase of accelerated price increases, which will affect prices for end consumers and the overall inflation dynamics in Ukraine in 2026.

It is worth noting that earlier the former head of the Association of Fuel Market Operators, Leonid Kosyanchuk, stated that due to sanctions and diesel shortages in Europe, a rise in diesel fuel prices is observed in Ukraine.

Given that the planned increase in excise taxes will lead to an increase in fuel prices, consumers should prepare for new financial expenses. It is also important to note that these changes will affect the overall inflation in the country, so it is crucial to monitor the developments in the fuel market in the coming months.