The Central Bank of Russia has published scenarios for the economy: even the baseline forecast does not promise growth.

Scenarios for the Development of the Russian Economy

According to inkorr.com: The Central Bank of Russia has presented four probable scenarios for economic development, none of which promises improvement. This was reported by Andrey Kovalenko, head of the Center for Counteracting Disinformation at the National Security and Defense Council.

He noted that even in the 'baseline' scenario - with oil at $55 and no new sanctions - growth is only 0.5-1%.

In the 'risk' scenario, official inflation is projected to exceed 12%, GDP is expected to decline by 3.5%, and the National Wealth Fund could be depleted as early as 2026. 'Essentially, Nabiullina acknowledges: if the war is not stopped and negotiations do not begin - the Russian economy will collapse. This is not a forecast - it is a warning of the system to itself,' Kovalenko emphasized.

The analysis presented by the Central Bank of Russia shows that even in the most optimistic scenario for the country's economy, only very slight growth is expected. The greatest threats and problems in the 'risk' scenario are related to inflation growth, GDP decline, and the likelihood of depleting the National Wealth Fund in the near future.

Thus, the data published by the Central Bank indicate serious risks for the Russian economy. The absence of positive trends and the need for urgent changes prompt the need to find ways to solve existing problems, yet the political situation complicates this process. Whether Russia will find a way out of the economic crisis will be shown by time.