Survey in Poland: Faith in Ukraine's Victory Has Fallen to a Historic Low.

According to ТСН: The optimism among the Polish population regarding the outcomes of the war between Russia and Ukraine has dropped to a record low level.

According to the latest survey conducted by the CBOS center, most residents of Poland believe that Ukraine will not be able to regain all its territories.

Historic Low of Optimism: Survey Results from Poles

Social scientists note that from November to December 2025, the mood in Poland has significantly worsened. Here is how the respondents' opinions are distributed.

Territorial Concessions

63% of respondents believe that Ukraine will have to concede some of its territories — this is 3% more compared to September of last year.

Complete Occupation of the Country

The share of people who believe in a possible complete occupation of Ukraine by Russia has increased to 8%, which is twice the previous average indicators (2–4%).

Optimistic Scenario

Only 6% of respondents believe in Russia reaching the borders of February 24, 2022, and only 2% hope for a complete liberation of the territories, including Crimea and Donbass (the borders of 1991).

Additional Sentiments in Poland

The survey also revealed other concerning aspects of Polish society.

Duration of the War

Most Poles do not believe that hostilities will end by 2026.

Defense Funding

More than 50% of citizens oppose the introduction of a special tax for the accelerated modernization of their own army, despite existing security threats.

The study was conducted through interviews from November 27 to December 8, 2025. A total of 948 individuals participated. Social scientists note that this is the lowest indicator of faith in Ukraine's victory among the residents of Poland throughout the period of the full-scale invasion.

It should be noted that Poland will not send troops to Ukraine. The head of the Polish government, Donald Tusk, stated that the country will actively participate in the logistical and organizational support of Ukraine and the states that will form forces on its territory.

Thus, the survey results indicate a rise in pessimism among the Polish population. The decrease in optimism regarding the war in Ukraine may also impact political decisions and public opinion regarding support for Ukraine in the future. Poland continues to be an important partner for Ukraine, and while sentiments are changing, efforts to support may remain at a high level.