Russia to Lose 10% of Gas Market: IEA Forecast for 2035.

International Energy Agency's Forecast on Russia's Gas Trade

According to inkorr.com: The International Energy Agency (IEA) has released a new forecast indicating that Russia will not be able to regain its share in the international gas market to pre-war levels. According to the agency's information, Moscow will need to make significant efforts to restore its status among global exporters.

According to the IEA's estimates, Russia's share in global gas trade may decrease by 10% by 2035, from 25% as observed in 2021. At the same time, revenues from gas sales are projected to be only $28 billion in the 2030s, compared to $120 billion per year in the 2010s.

This forecast signals that Russia will not be able to compensate for the decline in pipeline gas exports to Europe, while the total export volume is expected to decrease by 7 billion cubic meters by 2035. Liquefied natural gas (LNG) production is expected to be around 55 billion cubic meters by 2040, which is below the targets set in the Russian Energy Strategy-2050.

Among the main obstacles pointed out by the IEA are:

• sanctions;
• limited access to Western technologies and financing;
• insufficient number of ice-class tankers for LNG exports;
• increasing commercial barriers in a competitive market due to the growth of export capacities from the USA and Qatar.

Overall, the IEA's forecast underscores that Russia will have to overcome numerous challenges that may significantly impact its position in the global gas market in the future.

This information reflects serious changes in the energy balance and strategic situation facing Russia and indicates how global trends may rewrite the rules of the game in the gas market. The IEA's indicators, if confirmed, could seriously affect Russia's economic plans and its role in the global energy landscape.