Russia's Economy After Four Years of War: Deep Crisis and Vassal-Like Dependence on China.

Igor Lipsits's Forecast for Russia's Economic Situation

According to UATV: Economist Igor Lipsits has issued a stark forecast for Russia's economy, stating that four years after its invasion of Ukraine, the country's economic condition has severely deteriorated and its dependence on China has grown. He argues that Russia is now in a state of deep crisis, evidenced by data from 2025 showing a sharp slowdown in industrial growth and a record budget deficit.

A primary cause of Russia's economic difficulties has been the loss of its European oil and gas market. Established in the late 1960s, this market was a crucial revenue source, but it has collapsed due to Russia's foreign policy and military actions. In 2022, only a price cap—not a full embargo—was imposed on Russian oil, a measure which failed to significantly alleviate the situation.

The State of the Economy and Dependence on China

Ukraine's Foreign Intelligence Service has reported that the Russian economy is entering a phase of deep crisis. Igor Lipsits noted:

“After four years, everything has become worse than one could have assumed.” - Igor Lipsits

He further emphasized that Russia has fallen into a position of absolute, vassal-like dependence on China, describing the country as 'a bowl of energy rice for China'. This reliance could have serious future consequences for the Russian economy as it is forced to seek new markets and ways to preserve its economic standing. This shift represents a fundamental realignment of Russia's economic ties away from Europe.

Thus, Igor Lipsits's forecasts paint a picture of a Russian economy in critical condition, facing immense challenges and growing dependence on external partners, particularly China.

As Lipsits points out, Russia's economic situation demonstrates not only internal problems but also the consequences of its foreign policy, specifically its aggression against Ukraine. This has led to the loss of vital markets and increased reliance on a single partner, jeopardizing the country's long-term stability. In the context of global economic shifts, Russia urgently needs to find new avenues for economic recovery and to reduce the impact of external factors on its development.