Geopolitical Maneuvers: How Putin Plans to Outplay Trump.

On the international stage, a complex geopolitical game is unfolding, with Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump playing leading roles. Russian propaganda is in full swing, trying to create the impression of an imminent victory over Ukraine. The statements of the American president, who openly expresses a pro-Russian stance and accuses Ukraine of having initiated the conflict, only exacerbate the situation.

The Russian government and Putin himself were not prepared for this turn of events. Putin constantly calls for the protection of his country's sovereignty, but the further situation depends on many factors, such as the situation in Ukraine, the rearmament of European countries, and Trump’s position.

The recent meeting between American and Russian representatives in Riyadh is a significant step in relations between these countries. The agreements reached regarding Ukraine and 'mutual geopolitical interests' raise the possibility of a summit between Trump and Putin in March.

This diplomatic uncertainty is pleasing to Putin. Meanwhile, Trump views negotiations as a means to swiftly end the war, but Putin sees them as part of a larger conflict. Putin attempts to demonstrate his confidence and strength, but his plans may not unfold as he envisions.

Russia is suffering significant losses in this war. More than half of the retained 7,300 Soviet tanks have already been destroyed. The losses of artillery systems last year exceeded the figures of the previous two years combined. There are also issues with contractors and mobilization, which creates serious political risks.

Despite the relative resilience of the Russian economy against sanctions, the situation remains tense. The militarization of the economy has led to double-digit inflation and record-high interest rates. The wealth fund is rapidly shrinking, and exports are suffering due to sanctions and declining commodity prices.

Putin hopes to exert manipulative influence on Trump using the 'carrot and stick' tactic. The Kremlin aims to neutralize Ukraine by limiting its armed forces, recognizing annexed territories, and fully lifting sanctions.

Even if the hot war ends, Putin will continue to attempt to paralyze Europe and dismantle the post-war order in the West. He seeks to break Ukraine and weaken Europe. Two shifting groups are emerging in Russia - 'peacemakers' and 'military', who hold differing views on the future.

An end to hostilities could give Ukraine the opportunity to recover, while the maintenance of sanctions may contain Russia's ambitions. But Putin is convinced that achieving an agreement through Trump will help bring Russia back onto the world economic stage, while simultaneously weakening Ukraine and confusing Europe.