Hryvnia under pressure: Banker gave a forecast for the dollar exchange rate growth in October.

The dollar exchange rate in Ukraine will gradually increase during October, despite increasing inflationary pressure.

This was reported by Taras Lesovyi, head of the treasury department of Globus Bank, writes RBC-Ukraine.

According to the expert, in the second half of the month, the situation on the foreign exchange market will remain relatively stable, despite a new wave of consumer price growth caused by tax changes.

“We expect to maintain minor exchange rate fluctuations observed last week. However, the market will continue the slow but expected process of increasing the cost of major currencies," - noted Lesovyi.

The banker emphasized that weekly changes in the exchange rate may be negligible or even static. However, daily fluctuations will occur both in the direction of growth and decrease.

Lesovyi also reminded about the "managed flexibility" regime in the foreign exchange market, which implies maintaining market principles of exchange rate formation with the possibility of regulator intervention in case of imbalance.

According to the expert's forecasts, the volume of currency interventions by the National Bank of Ukraine during October 14-20 will remain at the level of 150-180 million dollars per day, which corresponds to the indicators of recent weeks.

Forecasts regarding the dollar and euro exchange rates

According to the forecast, on the interbank market, the dollar exchange rate is expected to fluctuate within the range of 41.1-41.7 hryvnias, and the euro from 45 to 47 hryvnias. On the cash market, a slightly wider range is expected: 41.2-41.9 hryvnias for the dollar and 45-47.5 hryvnias for the euro.

The expert notes that the difference between interbank and cash market rates will average from 30 to 50 kopecks, depending on the currency.

"We expect that the average weekly exchange rate fluctuations will not exceed 2% from the initial rate of the week," - emphasized the banker.

These forecasts indicate relative stability of the foreign exchange market in the short term, although allowing for some volatility within the specified corridors.

It should be noted that the situation on the foreign exchange market is under close scrutiny by the National Bank of Ukraine, which can take regulatory measures to maintain the stability of the hryvnia if necessary.