NBU maintains the dollar rate: why it is not worth buying currency in December.

According to ТСН: The key role in maintaining stability in the foreign exchange market is played by the policy of the National Bank of Ukraine. The regulator continues to actively smooth significant fluctuations in the exchange rate on the interbank market through currency interventions, which effectively prevents a sharp rise in the dollar rate, despite increased demand from importers and businesses ahead of the New Year holidays. Analysts believe that the potential rise in the rate is more psychological and seasonal rather than indicative of financial instability.

Forecasts for the foreign exchange market

Sergiy Mamedov, vice president of the Association of Ukrainian Banks and chairman of the board of Globus Bank, notes that by the end of 2025, the situation in the foreign exchange market will remain relatively stable, and the exchange rate fluctuations will be "within acceptable limits".

"It is expected that in annual terms, inflation by the end of December will not exceed 10%, and cumulatively for November - December will be 1-1.5%. Therefore, there are currently no reasons for concern."

Experts from the financial marketplace KIT Group note that at the end of the year, demand for currency traditionally increases due to business activity and the closure of financial periods. However, thanks to NBU interventions and sufficient reserves, the market remains within controlled limits. Experts advise not to consider purchasing dollars in December as a profitable investment for short-term profit but rather to focus on long-term planning.

"The state budget for 2026 has already laid down an average annual exchange rate of 45.7 UAH per dollar, and it is unlikely to expect a clear reverse trend: it is more about a completely controlled gradual devaluation by the NBU."

Therefore, the main factor that restrains a sharp increase in the exchange rate in December remains the actions of the NBU, which actively supports stability in the market.

In summary, it is important to note that the policy of the National Bank and expert forecasts allow maintaining optimism regarding the currency situation. And while traditional fluctuations may be observed at the end of the year, the market remains under control, allowing citizens and businesses to plan their financial decisions more confidently.