The dollar is falling, the euro is rising: why the exchange rate changed after the adoption of the budget.

According to ТСН: The main economic event of the past week was the adoption by the Verkhovna Rada of the law on the state budget for 2026. The exchange rate in Ukraine reacted ambiguously to this news: the dollar depreciated, while the euro, on the contrary, became more expensive.

Current week exchange rate

What to expect this week? It is worth considering which currency is currently more profitable – the dollar, the euro, or something else. This will be discussed in weekly analyses.

• What is happening in the currency market;

• What to expect from the exchange rate this week;

• To sell or buy cash currency.

Our experts: Oleg Pendzin, expert of the Economic Discussion Club, Andriy Zablovsky, head of the secretariat of the Council of Entrepreneurs under the Cabinet, and financial analyst Andriy Shevchishin.

Dollar and euro exchange rate at currency exchange points

According to specialized websites, the cash dollar rate increased from December 1 to 2. Over two days, the dollar rose on average by 6 kopecks in sales, reaching 42.56 UAH/dollar, and in buying – 42.03 UAH/dollar. From December 3, a slow decline began: by Sunday, December 7, it cost 42.37 UAH in sales (–13 kopecks for the week) and 41.85 UAH in buying (–15 kopecks).

The highest dollar price last week was 42.60 UAH, the lowest was 42.25 UAH. The maximum buying rate was 42.16 UAH/dollar.

The cash euro also grew more expensive: on December 1, the rate rose by 13 kopecks to 49.47 UAH/euro in sales and 48.83 UAH in buying. By Friday, December 5, the rate reached 49.53 UAH in sales (+21 kopeck) and 48.91 UAH (+22 kopecks) in buying. On the weekend, the rate decreased, and by Sunday, December 7, it amounted to 49.42 UAH in sales (+10 kopecks for the week) and 48.78 UAH (+13 kopecks) in buying.

Market situation analysis

In the underground market, according to services, the dollar became cheaper in both sales and purchases; however, fluctuations in the rate were observed. In sales, the rate fluctuated between 42.25 and 42.37 UAH/dollar, in buying – between 42.10 and 42.35 UAH. As of Sunday, December 7, the sale amounted to 42.27 UAH/dollar.

The euro rate in this market, on the contrary, rose all week, reaching 49.32 UAH in sales (+20 kopecks) and 49.20 UAH in buying (+8 kopecks).

The National Bank has somewhat changed the hryvnia rate against other currencies over the week. On Monday, December 8, the NBU set rates: 42.06 UAH/dollar and 49.00 UAH/euro.

Andriy Shevchishin explained the reasons for the dollar's decline due to changes in its value in international markets:

"This is reflected in the official rate of the National Bank. On the interbank market, the currency supply has decreased by 10%, demand by 14%..."

Andriy Zablovsky believes that the adoption of the law on the state budget has positively influenced the market:

"This is a positive signal, as is the information about increasing the NBU's foreign exchange reserves..."

Expectations from the exchange rates

Experts predict that the week will be calm for the hryvnia. As Oleg Pendzin noted, the adoption of the law without sufficient income levels is a signal for Western partners:

"So everything is currently frozen... the dollar rate will be close to 42.5 UAH."

Andriy Shevchishin noted that the rate will predominantly be determined by financial factors, which may change:

"I remind you: the US discount rate is decreasing on December 10, which may lead to an increase in the euro's value against the dollar..."

Andriy Zablovsky emphasized the importance of benchmarks in the state budget for business and the population:

"The interbank rate will be in the range of 42.2–42.5 UAH/dollar."

To sell or buy currency?

Andriy Shevchishin advises to take the opportunity to buy currency at moderate prices:

"The state budget has set the dollar rate at 45.7 UAH..."

Oleg Pendzin recommends refraining from any financial actions until more clear indicators appear after December 18:

"After that, it will be possible to make an informed decision..."

Andriy Zablovsky suggests considering investments in various currencies and metals, but emphasizes the importance of maintaining liquidity:

"It is better to keep at least 30% of savings in UAH..."

Experts advise not to sell currency without an urgent need.

Currently, the currency market is in a state of expectation, and it is important to monitor changes that may affect the hryvnia exchange rate. It is expected that further decisions from the National Bank and changes in the economic situation may significantly influence the exchange rate policy. Investors and business people must be ready for fluctuations and respond promptly to optimize their financial strategies.